New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Pick

by | Jun 19, 2019 | mlb

New York Mets (35-38) vs. Atlanta Braves (43-31), 6/19/19
Time: 7:20 pm ET Wednesday, June 19
Where: SunTrust Park, Cumberland, GA
Listed Pitchers: Steven Matz (5-4, 3.93 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (7-3, 4.11, 1.33)
TV: MLB, SNY, FS Southeast

Moneyline: Braves -150/Mets +140 (MyBookie)
Over/Under: 9.5

After splitting the first two games of this NL East rivalry series the Mets and Braves meet for a rubber match Wednesday evening in suburban Atlanta. Which way are we going here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Fried at around -145 over New York and Matz, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line to around -150.

Mets vs. Braves Set-Up

Atlanta took the opener of this series Monday night 12-3 but New York bounced back to take Tuesday’s game 10-2. The Braves won as -130 favorites on the MLB betting line Monday but the Mets won as -115 chalk Tuesday.

New York rapped out 15 hits Tuesday night, nine for extra bases, while getting another quality outing from Jake deGrom.

Also, Monday’s game played over a total of nine runs, and Tuesday’s game played over 8.5.

Even with Tuesday’s victory New York is only 2-4 over its last six games.

Even with Tuesday’s loss Atlanta is 10-2 over its last 12 games.

At 43-31 overall the Braves lead the NL East by 2.5 games over second-place Philadelphia, and by 7.5 games over the 35-38 Mets.

New York is also only 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

The season series between these two teams is now tied at three games apiece.

Wednesday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Fried, by our strict standards, is 7/14 on quality starts this season but 0 for his last four. Last Friday he gave up five runs and two home runs through 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies, although the Braves won that game 9-8. And over his last four starts he’s allowed 17 runs and 31 hits through 20 1/3 innings.

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Bovada

Atlanta is 10-4 with Fried this season, and thanks to some super run support 3-0 over his last three starts.

In two career starts against the Mets, one last year and one in 2017, Fried allowed four runs – two earned – and 11 hits through 10 1/3 innings. The Braves split those two games.

Fellow southpaw Matz is 6/13 on quality starts this year, but only one for his last three. Last Friday he gave up four runs – three earned – through six innings against St. Louis, throwing 113 pitches, and over his last three outings he’s allowed 10 ER and 17 hits, including three homers, through 18 innings.

New York is 8-5 with Matz this season, but 1-2 over his last three starts.

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Over his last two starts against Atlanta, one last year and one back in April of this season, Matz allowed two runs and five hits through nine innings. The Mets split those two games.

Wednesday’s Batting Splits

  • New York is batting .270/.343/.461 against left-handed pitching this season.
  • Atlanta is batting .266/.337/.466 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least five runs nine times in its last 10 games.

The Bullpens

  • The Mets bullpen owns a terrible 5.38 ERA this season and a 1.53 WHIP, “helping” this unit rank among the worst bullpens in Baseball at the moment.
  • The Braves pen owns a 4.10 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 39-27 in Mets games this season.
  • Overs are 43-28 in Braves games this season.
  • Overs are 25-13 in games played at SunTrust Park this season.
  • Overs are a combined 16-8 in games started by Fried and Matz this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll call this pitching match-up about a wash, and the same goes for the splits with the sticks. But Atlanta owns the advantage in the comparison of the bullpens, and those units could play a big part in Wednesday night’s game. So we like the Braves for our free MLB pick in this spot.

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